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Post by danhiggins on Feb 21, 2008 18:24:52 GMT -5
Could someone that has the time give a breakdown of the % chances teams have in terms of getting the #1 pick in the lotto? For extra credit, could you break down the chances other teams have of moving up into the top 3? Any and all info would be appreciated. Thanks.
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Raptors
Jason Richardson
Posts: 1,337
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Post by Raptors on Feb 21, 2008 18:28:32 GMT -5
1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance
FBB is gay, and the team that lands #1 worst, usually doesn't pick #1, thats only in my experience though.
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Post by danhiggins on Feb 21, 2008 18:35:01 GMT -5
Is the above true? I'm asking because there are only 13 lotto teams correct? Maybe I'm wrong on that, but I thought the lotto was JUST the non-playoff teams. Maybe I miscounted. If it is only the top 13, does that mean the % goes up relative to the above info?
I was mostly wondering if the LBA was different than the NBA. Thanks for responding though Sonics. I'm sure you know what you're talking about.
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Post by JoeW on Feb 21, 2008 18:41:33 GMT -5
lotto is only non playoff teams. Those percentages are pretty close but probably not exact due to the Bobcats not being in the LBA. I do know its roughly 25% for worst team, 20% for 2nd worst and gradually goes down from there.
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Post by danhiggins on Feb 21, 2008 18:45:11 GMT -5
So of course, the odds are that the worst team WON'T get the #1 pick. It's actually 75% against them landing the pick. Crazy. The wikipedia page for NBA Draft Lottery breaks it down well, but the 13-14 team thing threw me off. I should have assumed it's about the same.
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Raptors
Jason Richardson
Posts: 1,337
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Post by Raptors on Feb 21, 2008 18:45:41 GMT -5
Exactly what the Raptors said. Since the Cats aren't in the LBA, you do what you said Knicks.
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Post by danhiggins on Feb 21, 2008 18:51:20 GMT -5
Exactly what the Raptors said. Since the Cats aren't in the LBA, you do what you said Knicks. Well, in that case, I say the Knicks get the #1 pick!  |
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Post by Hornets on Feb 21, 2008 19:04:59 GMT -5
We all know, the worst team has a 100% chance of a top 4 pick.
Nothing less, nothing more. You could go 0-82 and end up with #4.
And a 25% chance does mean once in 4 drafts will the worst team get the top pick. It's basic statistics. Not only in FBB, also in the NBA. FBB is no different here.
(Dan, the 2nd worst record gets the top pick once every 5th draft,on average. Keep your fingers crossed ...)
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Raptors
Jason Richardson
Posts: 1,337
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Post by Raptors on Feb 21, 2008 19:05:21 GMT -5
Exactly what the Raptors said. Since the Cats aren't in the LBA, you do what you said Knicks. Well, in that case, I say the Knicks get the #1 pick! Well, the #2 and #3 have a higher combined chance to get #1, then #1 does, so chances indicate that me or you will most likely get #1. Aside from the top 3, the 4th team really doesn't have a realistic chance at #1. |
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Post by Hornets on Feb 21, 2008 19:08:47 GMT -5
wishful thinking.
In reality, the chances for the 3rd and 4th worst team are basically the sam, there's not that much difference between 15 out of 100 or 12 out of 100.
I think from the 8th seed it gets really really unlikely.
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Post by danhiggins on Feb 21, 2008 19:30:09 GMT -5
Right, 25% for something also means 75% against something else. We'll see, but I'm not counting my chickens or anything. It helps to have a top pick in a 4 deep draft. Other picks will be good too, but I think there's a drop of after the first two, then there's a drop off after numbers three and four. Then there are a couple guys like Dunleavy and Williams that should be decent, but are less than the top 4.
It'll be fun. This is the highest my pick has been for me since I've been here. I'm not counting the time when my 8th or 9th worst team ended up getting pick #2 because I didn't have the pick. The draft is always fun, but even more fun when you have a decent shot at a decent pick.
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Raptors
Jason Richardson
Posts: 1,337
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Post by Raptors on Feb 21, 2008 19:44:30 GMT -5
The Top 3 teams usually don't fall out of the top 5. And thats where this draft is loaded at. Of course 1 - 3 is better then 4 and 5. But i think 4 and 5 have a higher chance at being better then anyone lower in the draft.
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Magic
Role Player
Posts: 847
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Post by Magic on Feb 21, 2008 20:41:20 GMT -5
Hornets pick is tied for 10th pick, who gets the 10th spot? Celtics or my(hornets) pick?
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Raptors
Jason Richardson
Posts: 1,337
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Post by Raptors on Feb 21, 2008 20:46:53 GMT -5
Hornets pick is tied for 10th pick, who gets the 10th spot? Celtics or my(hornets) pick? I think it goes by head to head match up. |
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Post by Timberwolves on Feb 21, 2008 22:18:41 GMT -5
no tiebreakers in FBB its random
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