Post by danhiggins on May 29, 2008 20:59:05 GMT -5
Every year the draft comes an goes. I can't help but say it's kind of like having sex for the first time. You have such a build up and high expectations, then right after it's done you say, "boy, that was fast." More often than not you're also left with some doubt and regret. That's the draft right there. Let's go back in time a few years and see what kind of "mistakes" were made and what kind of "doubts" teams were left with.
These guys are about to make some dough (some deserved and some not) this off season so it's never to late (or early) to begin the coulda, shoulda, wouldas.
#1 Pick: Pau Gasol Orlando Magic
The magic at the time expected the world of Pau. The Portuguese international is big, athletic, and can play all over the court. his progression has been steady, except this year the Magic have added some talented scorers to take the load off the young big man. Gasol's rebounds have been over 10 a game on average from day one and they've increased in each of his first three seasons. Gasol made the 1st Team All-Rookie squad and looks like he has a bright future.
Grade: A (at Draft Time) A (Today)
Off Season Projection: The Magic will throw the kitchen sink at Gasol and he'll end up back in Orlando on a seven-year max deal.
#2 Pick: Jason Richardson Rockets
Richardson was a major surprise at #2 and let's be honest, this was a stupid pick that only a computer would make. The Rockets could have had a number of other players, but they took the high-flying Michigan State product. Well, don't look now, but Richardson is doing just fine after the deal that sent him to Denver to play for the Nuggets. Richardson has also improved in each of his first three seasons in about every statistical category. The biggest improvement: his defense. Richardson garnered All-LBA Defensive 2nd team honors last year. Now if only he could get his turnovers down below 4 per.
Grade: F (at draft time), but now he's a solid A-
Off Season Projection: The Nuggets might have a hard time getting Richardson back. He's talked about wanting to play for a playoff team and the Nuggets haven't been that solid lately. I think he'll end up elsewhere.
#3 Pick: Gilbert Arenas Seattle Sonics
The Sonics couldn't believe their luck when Arenas fell to them at #3. The talented scorer from Arizona started at point guard right away scoring over 23 points per contest on average for the lowly Sonics. Interestingly enough, Sonis management moved Arenas after just two seasons in the Emerald City because he wasn't developing well enough. Now playing in Indiana for the Pacers, Arenas looks like he's still growing, but is averaging close to 20 points per game. He's also averaging close to six assists and six rebounds per game. The problem with Arenas appears to be the fact that he's not a "true" point guard. Should he play the off guard spot, or should he be handling the ball? Time will tell there, but he looks like he has plenty of room left to grow and management in Indiana appear to be willing to groom him into the next big scoring threat.
Grade: A+ (at Draft Time) given the developments since he's a B to B+
Off Season Projection: Arenas could be just like Richardson in that he's looking to win and he's not willing to show the same loyalty for Indiana that they appear to be showing him. When all is said and done I think he makes off big and stays in Indiana.
Pick #4: Tony Parker Kansas City Kings
The Kings hurried to the podium on draft day and grabbed Tony Parker. They then turned around (before Parker was done putting his new Kings hat on) and dealt the Frenchman to the Los Angles Lakers in a deal that sent Steve Nash to Kansas City. This deal turned out very well for the Lakers. That isn't to say Nash was washed-up, but the Lakers managed to win a title this last year with the 22 year-old Parker starting at point guard. Parker looks like his best days are still ahead of him too. Parker doesn't blow you away with great numbers, but he manages the game, gets the ball to the scorers, and doesn't turn it over much. That makes him a winner.
Grade: A on draft day and still an A given the results.
Off Season Prediction: Parker has said he loves it in Los Angeles and is even been seen dating some movie stars. The only way he leaves LA is if the Lakers deal him before re-signing time.
Pick #5: Joe Johnson New York Knicks
This is my favorite pick in this draft. With that out of the ay let's step back and see what Johnson has actually done. He was the rookie of the year averaging nearly 27 points per game. To be fair, Johnson was the leader of the worst team in franchise history. Excellence among trash is easy to spot. His sophomore year Johnson actually took a step back to make way for the next Knick rookie of the year, Yao Ming. Almost all of Johnson's stats went down and his team still stunk. In his third year the Knicks added talent and became a contender. In that atmosphere Johnson proved he was the team's best player (not including Tim Hardaway). Johnson's numbers improved and he showed why he's one of the top scorers in this league. Johnson was named to the LBA All-Second Team this year. That is the first All-League honor for this draft class. Johnson looks like he'll continue to improve and should be a fixture in the league's top 5 scorers for years to come.
Grade: A at the draft on luck alone and an A+ given his stats.
Off Season Prediction: Word has it that Johnson is up in the air about his future. He could literally land anywhere. Some are comparing him to Tracy McGrady (in terms of his future destination) from a few years ago when the Rockets hit it rich. Word has it that the Knicks are ready to open up their deep pockets and make Johnson the richest player in this draft class (or at least tied).
Pick #6: Tyson Chandler Dallas Mavericks
Chandler was the first of the high schoolers taken and he looks good. Thus far he's looking like the next Marcus Camby. From what I understand it was a tough call for the Mavs between Chandler and fellow high schooler Eddie Curry. The Mavs chose Chandler and he's a double-double threat every night. The Mavs don't have him anymore, but he looks good for his new team the New Jersey Nets. Don;t be surprised if you see Chandler getting All-LBA Defensive consideration soon. His grade is lower now though because some players behind him have developed a little better.
Grade: B+ at draft time and now a B- to B.
Off Season Prediction: Chandler has said he's content in New Jersey, but he's expecting Marcus Camby money. It will be interesting to see if the Nets are willing to spend that kind of money on a defensive specialist. Time will tell.
Pick #7: Zach Randolph Boston Celtics
Randolph was the second Michigan State Spartan taken in the draft and the seventh player overall. After a lackluster rookie campaign that saw Randolph post on average four points and four rebounds in just over fifteen minutes per contest, the Celtics shipped the young power forward off to the Minnesota Timberwolves. The new surroundings (and a starting gig) re-energized the young man. Last season Randolph had a breakout year. He posted nearly 25 points and almost 10 rebounds a game. Those are big numbers for a third year player. There's enthusiasm in Minnesota, but it should be tempered as Randolph was the star on a terrible team. The jury is out on Randolph until he posts those numbers on a winning team.
Grade: B at draft time and an A- now.
Off Season Prediction: The Wolves have made it clear they're building around Randolph. That being said, Randolph comes from a winning program and wants to win in the LBA too. The Wolves are another team that (while they have a well deserved title) hasn't fared well lately.
Pick #8: Eddie Curry Miami Heat
Curry has seen his playing time increase over each of his first three seasons. The Heat have done a good job bringing him along and letting him grow. Last season the young post had a career high 16 points and 10 rebounds per game average. Curry has increased his low post scoring and looks like he could be All-Star depending on how things work out. It was an interesting draft given the trio of post players drafted 6-8. While Randolph has the highest floor, Curry and Chandler definitely have the higher ceilings. Curry will continue to develop and could be the best of the bunch when all is said and done.
Grade: B+ to A- at draft time and a solid A now given his production relative to the two players taken before him.
Off Season Prediction: Curry has said he loves Miami and wants to play there. Rumor has it that the organization and Curry have already worked out a deal that would re-sign Curry at a cut rate. That's just a rumor though.
Pick #9: Gerald Wallace New York Knicks
The Knicks second pick in the top 10 landed them University of Alabama swing-man Gerald Wallace. The Knicks had a hard time deciding between Wallace and Richard Jefferson. Let's just say, they made the wrong pick. Wallace is now with his third team in three years. He's now playing for the team that originally drafted Jefferson. These two will be compared their entire careers, but at this point the comparison isn't a good one. Wallace is a career 10 point six rebound player, but just can't seem to make the next step in terms of scoring. His defense has been stellar thus far and he can match up against opposing wings, but his offensive game is woeful. There's another comparison floating about ans it isn't a good one: Stacey Augmon.
Grade: B+ at draft time but now it's a solid C- (only because he could still develop or it would be worse).
Off Season Prediction: Wallace better have a good training camp and show some significant improvement or he could be kissing a big payday goodbye. Of course, this is the LBA and GMs love guys under the age of 22 with athletic ability and Wallace fits. Wallace has said he wants to play for a winner and San Antonio hasn't been one since the days of Davis/Mourning.
Pick #10:Richard JeffersonSan Antonio Spurs
The Spurs landed Jefferson after the Knicks screwed the pooch and grabbed Wallace. Jefferson has gone on to Dallas to play for the Mavs. In his first season in Dallas, Jefferson averaged about 20 points and 6 rebounds per game. Those are outstanding numbers for a 10th pick. While Wallace has remained static in terms of offense, Jefferson has shown why he was so highly touted coming out of Arizona. The future looks bright for Jefferson ans the Mavs are happy about that.
Grade: B+ at draft time and the same today, except when compared to the Wallace pick when Jefferson moves to an A.
Off Season Prediction: Jefferson likes Dallas and said he wants to be a part of building that team. He's likely to stay if the Mavs want him.
There are the top 10 picks. These are the most significant picks, but it should be noted that the steal of the draft looks to be high schooler Kwame Brown. The Lakers took a shot on the big kid at #15 and it looks like it's paying off. Brown has already been an integral part of a championship team and now that Zo has moved on, Brown looks to be the full-time starting center for the defending champs. He likely won;t be asked to score much with Kobe Bryant and Chris Webber in town, but he's still going to be asked to fill the shoes of a top 3 center in LBA history. Not an easy order, but at #15 Brown looks like he could be the next Dale Davis. An absolute steal.
There you have it. The top 10 picks. Some of them have been good, some great, and at least one was an absolute crapper. These guys will all be overpaid come this off season. Which one will end up being the best? Well, that's easy... it's Joe Johnson.
These guys are about to make some dough (some deserved and some not) this off season so it's never to late (or early) to begin the coulda, shoulda, wouldas.
#1 Pick: Pau Gasol Orlando Magic
The magic at the time expected the world of Pau. The Portuguese international is big, athletic, and can play all over the court. his progression has been steady, except this year the Magic have added some talented scorers to take the load off the young big man. Gasol's rebounds have been over 10 a game on average from day one and they've increased in each of his first three seasons. Gasol made the 1st Team All-Rookie squad and looks like he has a bright future.
Grade: A (at Draft Time) A (Today)
Off Season Projection: The Magic will throw the kitchen sink at Gasol and he'll end up back in Orlando on a seven-year max deal.
#2 Pick: Jason Richardson Rockets
Richardson was a major surprise at #2 and let's be honest, this was a stupid pick that only a computer would make. The Rockets could have had a number of other players, but they took the high-flying Michigan State product. Well, don't look now, but Richardson is doing just fine after the deal that sent him to Denver to play for the Nuggets. Richardson has also improved in each of his first three seasons in about every statistical category. The biggest improvement: his defense. Richardson garnered All-LBA Defensive 2nd team honors last year. Now if only he could get his turnovers down below 4 per.
Grade: F (at draft time), but now he's a solid A-
Off Season Projection: The Nuggets might have a hard time getting Richardson back. He's talked about wanting to play for a playoff team and the Nuggets haven't been that solid lately. I think he'll end up elsewhere.
#3 Pick: Gilbert Arenas Seattle Sonics
The Sonics couldn't believe their luck when Arenas fell to them at #3. The talented scorer from Arizona started at point guard right away scoring over 23 points per contest on average for the lowly Sonics. Interestingly enough, Sonis management moved Arenas after just two seasons in the Emerald City because he wasn't developing well enough. Now playing in Indiana for the Pacers, Arenas looks like he's still growing, but is averaging close to 20 points per game. He's also averaging close to six assists and six rebounds per game. The problem with Arenas appears to be the fact that he's not a "true" point guard. Should he play the off guard spot, or should he be handling the ball? Time will tell there, but he looks like he has plenty of room left to grow and management in Indiana appear to be willing to groom him into the next big scoring threat.
Grade: A+ (at Draft Time) given the developments since he's a B to B+
Off Season Projection: Arenas could be just like Richardson in that he's looking to win and he's not willing to show the same loyalty for Indiana that they appear to be showing him. When all is said and done I think he makes off big and stays in Indiana.
Pick #4: Tony Parker Kansas City Kings
The Kings hurried to the podium on draft day and grabbed Tony Parker. They then turned around (before Parker was done putting his new Kings hat on) and dealt the Frenchman to the Los Angles Lakers in a deal that sent Steve Nash to Kansas City. This deal turned out very well for the Lakers. That isn't to say Nash was washed-up, but the Lakers managed to win a title this last year with the 22 year-old Parker starting at point guard. Parker looks like his best days are still ahead of him too. Parker doesn't blow you away with great numbers, but he manages the game, gets the ball to the scorers, and doesn't turn it over much. That makes him a winner.
Grade: A on draft day and still an A given the results.
Off Season Prediction: Parker has said he loves it in Los Angeles and is even been seen dating some movie stars. The only way he leaves LA is if the Lakers deal him before re-signing time.
Pick #5: Joe Johnson New York Knicks
This is my favorite pick in this draft. With that out of the ay let's step back and see what Johnson has actually done. He was the rookie of the year averaging nearly 27 points per game. To be fair, Johnson was the leader of the worst team in franchise history. Excellence among trash is easy to spot. His sophomore year Johnson actually took a step back to make way for the next Knick rookie of the year, Yao Ming. Almost all of Johnson's stats went down and his team still stunk. In his third year the Knicks added talent and became a contender. In that atmosphere Johnson proved he was the team's best player (not including Tim Hardaway). Johnson's numbers improved and he showed why he's one of the top scorers in this league. Johnson was named to the LBA All-Second Team this year. That is the first All-League honor for this draft class. Johnson looks like he'll continue to improve and should be a fixture in the league's top 5 scorers for years to come.
Grade: A at the draft on luck alone and an A+ given his stats.
Off Season Prediction: Word has it that Johnson is up in the air about his future. He could literally land anywhere. Some are comparing him to Tracy McGrady (in terms of his future destination) from a few years ago when the Rockets hit it rich. Word has it that the Knicks are ready to open up their deep pockets and make Johnson the richest player in this draft class (or at least tied).
Pick #6: Tyson Chandler Dallas Mavericks
Chandler was the first of the high schoolers taken and he looks good. Thus far he's looking like the next Marcus Camby. From what I understand it was a tough call for the Mavs between Chandler and fellow high schooler Eddie Curry. The Mavs chose Chandler and he's a double-double threat every night. The Mavs don't have him anymore, but he looks good for his new team the New Jersey Nets. Don;t be surprised if you see Chandler getting All-LBA Defensive consideration soon. His grade is lower now though because some players behind him have developed a little better.
Grade: B+ at draft time and now a B- to B.
Off Season Prediction: Chandler has said he's content in New Jersey, but he's expecting Marcus Camby money. It will be interesting to see if the Nets are willing to spend that kind of money on a defensive specialist. Time will tell.
Pick #7: Zach Randolph Boston Celtics
Randolph was the second Michigan State Spartan taken in the draft and the seventh player overall. After a lackluster rookie campaign that saw Randolph post on average four points and four rebounds in just over fifteen minutes per contest, the Celtics shipped the young power forward off to the Minnesota Timberwolves. The new surroundings (and a starting gig) re-energized the young man. Last season Randolph had a breakout year. He posted nearly 25 points and almost 10 rebounds a game. Those are big numbers for a third year player. There's enthusiasm in Minnesota, but it should be tempered as Randolph was the star on a terrible team. The jury is out on Randolph until he posts those numbers on a winning team.
Grade: B at draft time and an A- now.
Off Season Prediction: The Wolves have made it clear they're building around Randolph. That being said, Randolph comes from a winning program and wants to win in the LBA too. The Wolves are another team that (while they have a well deserved title) hasn't fared well lately.
Pick #8: Eddie Curry Miami Heat
Curry has seen his playing time increase over each of his first three seasons. The Heat have done a good job bringing him along and letting him grow. Last season the young post had a career high 16 points and 10 rebounds per game average. Curry has increased his low post scoring and looks like he could be All-Star depending on how things work out. It was an interesting draft given the trio of post players drafted 6-8. While Randolph has the highest floor, Curry and Chandler definitely have the higher ceilings. Curry will continue to develop and could be the best of the bunch when all is said and done.
Grade: B+ to A- at draft time and a solid A now given his production relative to the two players taken before him.
Off Season Prediction: Curry has said he loves Miami and wants to play there. Rumor has it that the organization and Curry have already worked out a deal that would re-sign Curry at a cut rate. That's just a rumor though.
Pick #9: Gerald Wallace New York Knicks
The Knicks second pick in the top 10 landed them University of Alabama swing-man Gerald Wallace. The Knicks had a hard time deciding between Wallace and Richard Jefferson. Let's just say, they made the wrong pick. Wallace is now with his third team in three years. He's now playing for the team that originally drafted Jefferson. These two will be compared their entire careers, but at this point the comparison isn't a good one. Wallace is a career 10 point six rebound player, but just can't seem to make the next step in terms of scoring. His defense has been stellar thus far and he can match up against opposing wings, but his offensive game is woeful. There's another comparison floating about ans it isn't a good one: Stacey Augmon.
Grade: B+ at draft time but now it's a solid C- (only because he could still develop or it would be worse).
Off Season Prediction: Wallace better have a good training camp and show some significant improvement or he could be kissing a big payday goodbye. Of course, this is the LBA and GMs love guys under the age of 22 with athletic ability and Wallace fits. Wallace has said he wants to play for a winner and San Antonio hasn't been one since the days of Davis/Mourning.
Pick #10:Richard JeffersonSan Antonio Spurs
The Spurs landed Jefferson after the Knicks screwed the pooch and grabbed Wallace. Jefferson has gone on to Dallas to play for the Mavs. In his first season in Dallas, Jefferson averaged about 20 points and 6 rebounds per game. Those are outstanding numbers for a 10th pick. While Wallace has remained static in terms of offense, Jefferson has shown why he was so highly touted coming out of Arizona. The future looks bright for Jefferson ans the Mavs are happy about that.
Grade: B+ at draft time and the same today, except when compared to the Wallace pick when Jefferson moves to an A.
Off Season Prediction: Jefferson likes Dallas and said he wants to be a part of building that team. He's likely to stay if the Mavs want him.
There are the top 10 picks. These are the most significant picks, but it should be noted that the steal of the draft looks to be high schooler Kwame Brown. The Lakers took a shot on the big kid at #15 and it looks like it's paying off. Brown has already been an integral part of a championship team and now that Zo has moved on, Brown looks to be the full-time starting center for the defending champs. He likely won;t be asked to score much with Kobe Bryant and Chris Webber in town, but he's still going to be asked to fill the shoes of a top 3 center in LBA history. Not an easy order, but at #15 Brown looks like he could be the next Dale Davis. An absolute steal.
There you have it. The top 10 picks. Some of them have been good, some great, and at least one was an absolute crapper. These guys will all be overpaid come this off season. Which one will end up being the best? Well, that's easy... it's Joe Johnson.
